![]() The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. " The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Louis, Missouriģ7615, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.ģ7512, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. " The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets:Too Much of a Good Thing?,"Ģ008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. " The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?,"Īpplied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association Southwestern Finance Association, vol. " On The Robustness Of Range‐Based Volatility Estimators," " Who Trades Futures and How: Evidence from the Heating Oil Futures Market," & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990.ģ725552, Harvard University Department of Economics. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department. " Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. ![]() Our findings highlight the importance of both political institutions and policy choices in mediating global shocks. To the extent that climate change will make many developing countries more dependent on food imports, and that prices could rise and be more volatile, we suggest another vector by which climate change may affect political unrest. The findings have longer-run implications. Relative to autocracies, democracies pursue policies that are more favorable to the rural sector and less favorable to the cities. ![]() We show that this is due both to the more permissive political opportunity structure in democratic systems and to systematic differences in food policy across regimes of different types. ![]() Drawing on a dataset of urban unrest in 55 major cities in 49 Asian and African countries for the period 1961–2010, we find the effect of global food prices on protests and rioting is contingent on regime type: democracies are more prone to urban unrest during periods of high food prices than autocracies. Anecdotal evidence of riots during the global food price spikes of 2007––11 raises the more general question of whether global food prices affect patterns of contentious politics in developing countries. The 2014 IPCC report concludes that changes in precipitation and temperature could cause global food prices to nearly double by 2050. ![]()
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